CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-11-09T13:36:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Nov 10 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. An M3/2b flare was observed from
Region 2449 (S12E24, Dai/beta) at 09/1312 UTC. A Type II radio sweep,
with an estimated shock velocity 957 km/s, and a type IV radio sweep
were observed with the event. An associated, partial halo coronal mass
ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at
09/1336 UTC. Analysis of the CME was completed and a WSA-Enlil model run
was accomplished. The result revealed an Earth-directed component is
likely with this event.

Region 2449 underwent some decay, as its intermediate spots dissipated
slightly, however, some stressed magnetic field lines likely remain
present due to weak shear in the vicinity of the trailer spots. Region
2448 (N06E06, Cao/beta) changed little during the period and was stable.
Region 2443 (N07W89, Axx/alpha) continued to rotate to and beyond the
west limb, making an accurate classification no longer possible.
However, the region did produce some C1 flare activity, indicative of
the region's continued instability. All other regions were either
relatively stable or in gradual decay.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts on day one (10 Nov) primarily due to
the flare potential of Regions 2443 and 2449. On days two and
three (11-12 Nov), as Region 2443 rotates around the west limb,
probabilities will decrease to a slight chance for R1-R2 Radio
Blackouts.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 17,885 pfu observed at 09/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux became slightly enhanced in association with an M3/2b flare
at 09/1312 UTC but remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels over the next three days (10-12 Nov). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels
throughout the forecast period.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the
influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaked at 12 nT at 09/1926 UTC
before it decreased and held steady between 7 to 10 nT the remainder of
the period. The Bz component was variable, but had sustained periods of
primarily southward orientation from 10/0535-0800 UTC and again from
10/0935-1122 UTC. Solar wind velocity was elevated due to the CH HSS.
Speeds began the period between 450 - 500 km/s before they steadily rose
to a peak of 733 km/s by 10/1042 UTC. The phi angle was primarily
positive (away) from the Sun.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced but are likely to
begin a gradual decline later on day one on into day two (10-11 Nov) due
to continued, but waning CH HSS influence. During the later half of day
two, the CME from the 9 Nov M3 flare, is expected to increase solar wind
velocity and increase the total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
strength. Solar wind velocity and the total IMF strength is expected to
remain elevated on into the early periods of day three (12 Nov) due to
the CME influences.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due
to CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue reaching active to minor
storm (G1-Minor) levels, with an isolated period of moderate
(G2-Moderate) storming, on day one (10 Nov) due to continued effects
from the CH HSS. Active conditions are expected to continue into day two
(11 Nov). Later on day two, a glancing blow from the 9 Nov CME is
expected to impact Earth's magnetosphere with periods of G1 geomagnetic
storm levels. G1 storming is likely to continue into the early periods
of day three (12 Nov).

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Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Nov 10 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 10-Nov 12 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 10-Nov 12 2015

            Nov 10     Nov 11     Nov 12
00-03UT        4          4          5 (G1)
03-06UT        4          3          5 (G1)
06-09UT        5 (G1)     3          4     
09-12UT        5 (G1)     2          4     
12-15UT        6 (G2)     2          3     
15-18UT        5 (G1)     2          3     
18-21UT        4          2          3     
21-00UT        3          5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected mid-day on day
one (10 Nov), with G1 (Minor) storming periods expected the remainder of
the day, due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Late on
day two (11 Nov) a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) on 9
Nov, is expected to initiate G1 (Minor) storm levels. Those conditions
are expected to continue into the early periods of day three (12 Nov).

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